Why do I love Bubble Watches? I have no idea. Maybe it's the years of trying to see if Syracuse can sneak in or get hosed by the committee. maybe it's an offshoot of my love for the NCAA tournament. Maybe it's because bubble teams can end up making a big tournament impact. I don't know. I don't care. I love it - and it's back for 2010.
It's so early, teams can still move up and down. West Virginia would need to go on a five game losing streak to move out of the "Lock" category but thanks to the 2008-2009 Georgetown and Notre Dame teams we know that's possible.
Records and RPI as of 2/2/10
Locked In
Syracuse
Villanova
Georgetown
West Virginia
Bubble Territory but Looking Good
Pittsburgh (16-6 RPI 22) Pitt is basically in and just needs two or three more wins. I'd have them as a lock but the fact they've lost four of their last five games is a little troubling. That Indiana loss looks worse every day too. (Indiana's RPI is an astounding 237. That is not a joke.)
On Very Shaky Ground
As of today, I think only Cincinnati and USF sneak in as true "bubble teams." Yes - things can change quickly. UConn is in a free fall. Nothing is going well for them right now. Even the Texas win isn't so noteworthy.
Cincinnati (14-7 RPI 48) Very "Blah" numbers right now. 'Nati might be the ultimate bubble team since it's hard to make a strong case for them to be in or out. Wins over UConn, Providence and Vanderbilt might be just enough to get them in.
South Florida (15-7 RPI 46) Get on the bandwagon now. South Florida is in the conversation. Four straight Big East wins including Pittsburgh and Georgetown means that team nobody thought much about (or of) has a chance. A few more conference wins and they're in good shape.
Louisville (14-8 RPI 44) The Cardinals play a tough schedule but they're losing games all over the place. They have exactly zero quality or signature wins and I think Pitino's crew will be watching March Madness from the comfort of their on campus apartments. I know they have a better RPI than South Florida or Cincinnati but their overall profile is less impressive. Still time to put it together, but need to get it in gear.
UConn (13-9 RPI 50) That Texas win is looking less impressive every day. UConn is 3-6 in in Big East games and has a very soft RPI. They will get some credit for the # 1 strength of schedule but need wins. Badly.
Seton Hall (12-8 RPI 59) Wins over Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Cornell look good, the rest is pretty ugly. Pirates will need to go .500 in the conference and get their RPI into the forties to have a serious shot at the tournament. It's not impossible but it's not very likely.
Marquette (14-8 RPI 64) Right now they're only alive because they have wins over Georgetown and Xavier. Their remaining schedule isn't too tough (one game against Pittsburgh, everybody else is bubble quality or worse) so they have the best shot of moving up. Unless they beat Pitt, the Golden Eagles can only afford two or maybe three more losses.
All They Need is a Miracle
Notre Dame (15-7 RPI 69) It's not happening unless Notre Dame goes on an insane winning streak. Get ready for an ESPN graphic showing Mike Brey "on the hot seat".
St. John's (12-9 RPI 84) At least we're talking about them. Usually they're much worse.
Providence (12-10 RPI 89) They have some conference wins but a terrible strength of schedule and no quality wins makes it impossible for them to get in. The Friars remaining schedule is very difficult but if they can beat an elite team or two, they could crawl back onto the outer edge of the bubble.
Agree? Disagree? Think I'm a USF Bandwagon fan? (Guilty, by the way.) E-mail your comments to -
adunbar@cnycentral.com
