Big week for bubble action. UConn's free fall is accelerating and Providence is now off the map. Seton Hall and Marquette look like long shots but relatively easy remaining schedules mean we can't forget them.
As of right now, I think Pitt, Louisville and USF get in as bubble teams ... and that's it. Cincinnati just misses it and UConn is probably wishing the season would just end now so their RPI would stop falling.
Records and RPI as of 2/8/10
Locked In
Syracuse
Villanova
Georgetown
West Virginia
Bubble Territory but Looking Good
Pittsburgh (17-6 RPI 22) Obviously Pitt would be in if the Tournament started today but a few more wins would help. Their final three games are against St. John's, Providence and Rutgers so they should be on a roll going into the NCAAs
On Very Shaky Ground
Louisville (15-8 RPI 42) Louisville is one of the more compelling bubble stories out there. They aren't particularly impressive but win enough games to keep themselves in the conversation. Louisville could easily win 20 games and yet I'm not sure their overall profile will be impressive enough. Wins over Cincinnati, South Florida and UConn give them a decent yet boring resume.
South Florida (15-8 RPI 50) This is a team to get excited about. Except for a game at Villanova, their remaining games are very winable. (Marquette, Cincinnati, St. John's, Providence, DePaul and UConn) If South Florida can win five out of their remaining seven I think they're in. Louisville looks better right now but I think USF has a better chance of making the tournament.
Cincinnati (14-9 RPI 56) Tough schedule, too many losses. Cincy isn't completely out of it but I don't see enough talent here to put a winning streak together.
UConn (14-9 RPI 57) That Texas win is still looking less impressive every day. Remaining schedule is a mixed bag of tough teams and fellow bubble dwellers so they could still make a run.
Don't Write Them Off Yet
Seton Hall (12-9 RPI 63) Seton Hall isn't really on the bubble are they? Well - I was about to write them off when i looked at their schedule. They play West Virginia on the road and have seven games against the worst teams in the Big East. If they win six of seven games against the weak teams, the Hall could have 18 wins going into the Big East Tournament. It's still a shaky profile but I'm not ready to write them off yet.
Marquette (15-8 RPI 60) Similar story to Seton Hall. Remaining schedule is generally friendly and 20 wins isn't out of the question. Will need to beat a big name opponent (Pitt is coming to town) or win some Big East Tournament games too.
Notre Dame (17-7 RPI 59) I thought they were dead but Notre Dame is alive as long as they're a 20 win candidate. I don't think this team is good enough to squeak in but the the bubble is still pretty flexible. Need to win their next three (Seton Hall, St. John's and Louisville) to stay in the conversation.
All They Need is a Miracle
St. John's (12-10 RPI 91) At least we're talking about them. Usually they're much worse.
Providence (12-11 RPI 104) It's not happening. Providence sports fans can go back to living in Boston's shadow.
