As of right now, I see Louisville and UConn getting in as bubble teams. Both Seton Hall and Marquette have realisitic tournament hopes but it's hard to imagine both getting in. USF and Cincinatti's odds are longer but not impossible.
Locked In
Syracuse
Villanova
Georgetown
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Bubble Territory but Looking Good
Louisville (18-9 RPI 30) They're basically in. The Cards have a somewhat tough schedule remaining (Georgetown, UConn, Marquette, Syracuse) but if they win two of four they're all set.
On Very Shaky Ground
UConn (17-11 RPI 41 ) Still shaky but making a strong case for a bid. West Virginia gives them a signature win, though West Virginia isn't what they were a few months ago. Is UConn in? I'm not quite convinced. I think they need three more wins between the regular season and the tournament - but since Louisville, Notre Dame and South Florida are the remaining regular season games, the Huskies are in a good position.
Seton Hall (15-10 RPI 53) Seton Hall has an opportunity to make it but very little margin for error. Their very winnable remaining games are against Rutgers, Marquette, Rutgers again and Providence. If (and that's a big if) Seton Hall can win all four - they have a solid tournament resume. The game against Marquette is do or die for both teams.
Marquette (17-9 RPI 59) Marquette's profile is pretty soft. They have wins over most of the other Big East bubble teams but a terrible RPI and a loss to DePaul could doom them. Could win 20 games and still miss the tournament.
Cincinnati (15-11 RPI 56) The loss to Marquette las weekend was a killer. The Bearcats situation is pretty clear. They play DePaul, West Virginia, Villanova and Georgetown and probably need to win three of those four games. Odds of that happening? Very remote.
South Florida (16 -10 RPI 67) The Bulls have some very winable games coming up - they probably need to win three of the next four just to stay alive.
Just Barely on the Outer Edge of the Bubble
Notre Dame (17-10 RPI 81) Might be the worst 17-10 team a major conference has ever had.
St. Johns (15-11 RPI 70 ) Need a miracle. I'm not counting on it.
