UPDATED 3/4/2010
The Big East Bubble picture is very, very fluid. Marquette and Louisville are close to lock status but still not there yet. As of right now I think Louisville, Marquette and Notre Dame get in and UConn and Seton Hall just miss the cut. There's still a lot of time left and the Big east Tournament may help clear the water a little.
Locked In
Syracuse
Villanova
Georgetown
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Bubble Territory but Looking Good
Marquette (20-9 RPI 47) "Isn't Marquette a lock? Aren't they 11-6 in the Big East? They beat Georgetown and Xavier!" True - but they also have two bad losses to teams with RPIs above 100 (N.C. State and DePaul) and their RPI is a lowly 47. I think they're in but this isn't as rock solid as some would think.
Louisville (19-11 RPI 36) It's hard to imagine them not making it. Their resume isn't overwhelmingly powerful but the road win at Syracuse looks better everyday. Probably would have moved up to lock status if they beat Marquette and now they'll either need a win at the Big East Tournament or against Syracuse on Saturday.
On Very Shaky Ground
Notre Dame (20-10 RPI 61) I've been really down on Notre Dame (read any previous Bubble Watch) and I clearly underestimated how much better they would be without Luke Harangody. This is a very different team when Harangody isn't forcing up twenty shots a night and I'm guessing Mike Brey isn't going to rush him back. Notre Dame is far from a lock but have gone from punch line to likely tournament team in just two weeks. Impressive.
Downsides are an absolutely awful RPI number and some really shaky losses (St. John's, Rutgers) I think they need two more wins and Saturday's matchup with Marquette is basically a must win.
UConn (17-13 RPI 49 ) The last thing UConn could afford was a loss to Notre Dame. They're right on the bubble but absolutely need to beat South Florida this weekend and win one or two Big East Tournament games.
Seton Hall (16-11 RPI 63) If they win their two remaining games against Rutgers and Providence and if the Pirates win at least one Big East Tournament game, we'll talk. Let's just wait until some of those "ifs" come true.
Will Need a Long Big East Tournament Run
South Florida (18 -11 RPI 67) Doubtful that they can leapfrog all the teams in better position. Probably would have made the tournament if they were in a worse conference
Cincinnati (16-13 RPI 65) Not doing much to help their own cause. The Bearcats were better this season than a lot of people realized but they probably aren't good enough. Mick Cronin's crew should be stronger next year.
