3/7/2011 UPDATE:
If the NCAA Tournament started today, here’s how I see the Big East faring.
In the Tournament -
Pittsburgh (27-4 RPI 7) Pitt has a good shot at a #1 seed but may need to win a few games at the Big East Tournament
Notre Dame (25-5 RPI 9) Notre Dame should be a #2 seed and could be a trendy Final Four pick.
Georgetown (21-9 RPI 11) The Hoya's RPI number is somewhat inflated and Georgetown will probably be a #4 or #5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Georgetown's claims that Chris Wright will play should be viewed with some skepticism.
Syracuse (25-6 RPI 18) The Orange should lock up a #3 seed if they win their first Big East tournament game.
Louisville (23-8 RPI 20) A #4 seed is within reach but the Cardinals could have bigger problems. Louisville hasn't been very good away from home this year (UConn is their only notable road win) and I'm pretty sure tournament games are still played on the road.
St. Johns (20-10 RPI 22) Have the big wins (Duke, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UConn) but also have some shaky losses (Fordham, St. Bonaventure) St. John's has a good shot at a #4 seed.
Connecticut (21-9 RPI 24) I see them as the #6 seed nobody wants to play. Kemba Walker can't take them to the championship but he could upset a good team.
West Virginia (20-10 RPI 15) Great RPI, so-so profile means West Virginia should be a #6 or # 7 seed.
Looking Very Good -
Cincinnati (24-7 RPI 33) Cincy will make the tournament as a #7 or #8 seed. Keep your expectations low.
Villanova (21-10 RPI 31) 'Nova's meltdown probably won't keep them out of the tournament but it could be close. If 'Nova loses their first Big East tournament game, they would be 21-11 and 9-10 in the Big East. That's a very bubble-like profile. Oh - and they are 2-6 over their past 8 games.
Wrong Side of the Bubble -
Marquette (18 -13 RPI 67) Everybody loves the "11 Big East teams could get in!" story but Marquette isn't holding up their end. If Marquette doesn't win multiple games in New York, they'll be a top seed in the NIT.
Not Happening
Providence
Rutgers
Seton Hall
South Florida
adunbar@cnycentral.com
