It's really, really early but here's how things look right now.
Locks -
Syracuse
Marquette
Should Be In If The Tournament Started Today -
Georgetown (15-4) RPI #14 I think Georgetown is basically a lock but that loss to Pitt looks pretty bad. I wouldn't worry too much though.
West Virginia 15-8 RPI # 29 - The bizzaro Cincinnati. Solid RPI, decent record. West Virginia is far from a lock but should have a strong resume as the tournament rolls around.
Connecticut 14-6 RPI # 28 - UConn's wins aren't so great but a great strength of schedule (#10) and solid RPI should get them in. On a related note - this team is just not very good. A late season slide is not out of the question.
Louisville 17-5 RPI # 27 - I'm not going to analyze Louisville's recent meltdown but I think they pull it together for a late season run. If Louisville doesn't make the NCAA Tournament it would be a shock. I'm mildly troubled by their lack of signature wins (Memphis, Seton Hall and..... that's it) but Louisville has plenty of opportunities late in the season to pick up a huge W.
Bubble Territory But Leaning In -
Notre Dame 14-8 RPI # 64 - Another year, another tough team to predict. The Irish have a pretty bad RPI but it's hard to argue with their overall record. The win over Syracuse should give them enough to sneak in. Probably.
Seton Hall 15-7 RPI # 33 - A strong strength of schedule is keeping Seton Hall alive. A five game losing streak isn't helping at all. Wins over West Virginia and UConn don't look as spectacular is they did a few weeks ago.
Bubble Territory Leaning Out -
Cincinnati 15 -7 RPI # 98 - Decent record, terrible RPI. A strength of schedule of 130 is not helping at all. Cincy desperately needs a few big-time signature wins or they won't make it.
South Florida (12-9) RPI #76 - South Florida's 6-3 Big East record is a great story but a weak RPI and three bad losses (Penn St., Old Dominion and Auburn) could doom the Bulls. There are a lot of win-able games on the upcoming schedule so they should be in the conversation when the Big East Tournament rolls around.
Needs A Lot Of Work -
Pittsburgh (14-9) RPI # 65 - Pitt is 3-7 in Big East play and looks like a NIT team at this point. A win streak could get them back in the conversation.
Need A Miracle -
Villanova
Providence
St. John's
DePaul
Rutgers
