All the president and his political team need to do to feel better about polling numbers is look at the numbers from last summer. The latest WSJ/NBC News poll shows nearly 4 out of ten feel the nation is on the right track. Last August the number was lower than two out of ten. Just as it was the day Barack Obama took office, the same principle applies today. The economy will dictate whether he wins a second term.
Republican Mitt Romney has all but locked up the party’s nomination. His key to victory from this point forward is avoiding problems and following the rise and fall of dissatisfaction of key independent and middle of the spectrum voters. There are huge blocks of voters on both ends that are decided and won’t change their minds. The race will be decided by those who are now undecided.
They are the ones waiting to see if they still have a job in October. They are waiting to see if their retirement account has more value by the fall. They are waiting to see if nearly four years of Obama policy has started to pay off with a more comfortable and certain economic reality.
The same issues and the success of the president may also determine the outcome of Syracuse’s congressional rematch between republican incumbent Ann Marie Buerkle and former representative Dan Maffei. This race was just highlighted by Politico and the head of the DCCC as one that could determine a shift of power in congress.
There has been a great deal of talk about social issues of late and the military pull out from Iraq and Afghanistan. Even the president’s success taking out Bin Laden is a major feather in his cap, but none of that matters for voters in November if they can’t afford the gas to drive to the polls or they can’t make a mortgage payment because they’re out of work.
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