Cornell researchers look at impacts of mild winter
The warm winter we are having may have some positive and negative effects this coming spring and summer. Is the trade off of more ticks, bugs, skunks and bears worth it to YOU? Read ahead and comment on this story. It was distributed by the Cornell University press office.
Sometime after sunrise Thursday, sleeping groundhogs will be awakened by cheering crowds eager to see if this rodent sees its shadow. But the late-winter die has already been cast by an extraordinarily warm and snowless season to date, Cornell University researchers agree. From swelling deer populations and energetic mating skunks, to an explosion of ticks and mosquitoes, to shifts in planting seasons and a decreased threat of flooding, the “Winter that Wasn’t” will be felt well into the coming year – even by the groundhog himself, who was likely up ahead of Thursday’s ritual thanks to the mild weather.
Paul Curtis, a professor of natural resources and a Cooperative Extension wildlife specialist says, “The mild winter will definitely help deer survivorship, as they really haven't been food-stressed in much of New York State so far this year. Skunks and raccoons will likely be more active at nights when temperatures are above the mid-30s and there are light winds. February-March is the peak in breeding season for striped skunks, so with mild weather, breeding activity should be high this winter. People may be more likely to encounter skunks after dark, or the odor they leave behind. Woodchucks typically hibernate from late October through February. With milder weather and little snow cover, they may be active a few days earlier than usual. The same may be true for black bears, so damage to birdfeeders in spring could start earlier than usual. Bears could be out of their dens in late March and seeking food sources.”
Art DeGaetano, a climatologist and professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, and the director of the Cornell-based NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center says, “Although December 2011 and January 2012 have been warm, you do not have to go back too far to find a warmer period. The early winter of 2001-02 was the warmest at many Northeast U.S. stations. Over a longer time frame, the early winter of 1931-32 stands out as the warmest at the majority of Northeast U.S. sites. So far, the 2011-12 winter has averaged warmer than normal, with temperatures in much of the Northeast averaging at least 5 degrees above normal. The 60-day average was within the top 20 warmest on record at all but one of the major airport stations in the region. This winter's prevailing storm path, combined with the warmer temperatures has kept significant snowfall at bay. Consequently, there is not a lot of snow on the ground, especially when compared to last year.”
David W. Wolfe, a professor of plant and soil ecology in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, and the chair of the Climate Change Focus Group in the Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future says, “A mild winter will mean bigger deer populations in the spring because the deer have more to eat with less snow cover and more vegetation exposed for them to feed on all winter. It also will benefit some insect pests and invasive weeds like kudzu that normally are killed back during winter because of severe cold. On the positive side, if you are a farmer or gardener experimenting with crops or ornamentals that sometimes can't survive a severe winter, this will be a good year for you.”
Jody Gangloff-Kaufmann, a professor of entomology and a specialist with the New York State Integrated Pest Management Program says,“If the winter of 2011-12 continues in the mild pattern that most of the U.S. has seen, I think 2012 will be a very buggy year. Although insects are adapted to surviving winter's cold, extreme cold spells kill a percent of those in hibernation. Fluctuations between mild weather and extreme cold may also lower survival because warmth may stimulate insects to awaken from their wintering phase. This year, lots and lots of hungry ticks will emerge even on warm winter days. I anticipate the mosquito problems we normally see to be much more intense and begin earlier than usual if the weather continues to be mild. Even the fleas have had a boost so far this winter and many people are complaining about flea problems right now, in the middle of winter.”
William Schulze, a professor of economics and public policy says, “The price of natural gas has fallen dramatically. This benefits consumers who use gas for heat and the environment as well since it hastens the replacement of old, dirty, inefficient coal-fired power plants that are being replaced by highly efficient gas turbine generators. These are twice as efficient and much cleaner.”
Susan Riha, the director of the New York State Water Resources Institute and a professor of earth and atmospheric sciences says, “While no snowpack will reduce the risk of flooding a bit, most of our high levels of stream flow are caused by rain in the late winter and early spring falling on already wet soils.”
What do you think if our summer becomes extra buggy with more deer, bears, and skunks?
