SYRACUSE -- I think we'd all agree that Mother Nature has been pretty easy on us this month. To date, Hancock Airport has recorded only .6 of an inch of snowfall so far this season. The average snowfall for Hancock Airport through November 22 is just over ten inches. So, I guess we can say that we are at least starting this winter's snow season well below normal.
We've been very lucky as far as temperatures are concerned as well. To date the average daily temperature is running more than two degrees warmer than normal.
Well, it appears our luck is about to run out and a taste of reality is about to settle in. We started noticing this possible change in the weather pattern across North America 10-14 days ago. Our medium and longer range computer models began hinting at colder air building over eastern Siberia and far northwestern Canada and Alaska. Then, this past week, we have seen this building cold airmass on the computer models verified by the coldest air so far this season encompassing Alaska.
It was easy to take note of this since we do forecasting for an all news and talk radio station in Anchorage, Alaska, KFQD, and keep track of thier temperatures every day. Most days, especially earlier in the week, they had high temperatures only in the single numbers. Well, that colder air mass is now on-the-move and reaching into the northern praries of Canada. The jetstream (upper level winds) is also on-the-move and expected to dip southward into the Great Lakes and parts of the northeastern United States. In this position, some of the colder air way up north will be ushered down into our neck of the woods.
As of this writing, it appears this Thursday night (Thanksgiving Day) into Black Friday is the time period that we begin feeling and seeing the change to a colder and somewhat more wintry pattern. Temperatures certainly look to be cold enough for snow by this Friday at most elevations. How much snow depends greatly on two things. The development and location of a coastal storm to our east and the wind direction behind that storm for lake effect snow.
Although details are still yet to be nailed down, I would certainly take this opportunity to find your snow brush and heavier winter coat. It might not even hurt to make sure your snow shovel is at-the-ready... just in case. Yes, time is running out!
