All-time record in jeopardy
SYRACUSE -- Even though winter officially starts on December 21st, our winter weather season usually begins in November. In fact, Syracuse should have already received over 7½ inches of snow by this date. Through Tuesday, Hancock Airport has only received 0.6” of snow for the new season. This is certainly notable by itself. If we do not receive any more snow through Monday, then November 2009 would end up being the 5th least snowy November on record. Normally, every November Syracuse averages 11.1” of snow. However, there is another even more impressive record that is in jeopardy.
There is a snowless stretch that continues from last winter season. The last day that Syracuse received 1” of snow or more was February 24th of this past winter. Since then, there has not been another day which Syracuse has received 1” of snow or more. As of November 24th, this brings a total of 272 days where Hancock Airport has not had a day with 1” of snow. Check out the list below of the top five all-time longest stretches without seeing an inch or more of snow for Syracuse:
1946 – 276 Days (February 27th through December 1st)
1998 – 274 Days (March 22nd through December 22nd)
2009 – 272 Days (February 24th through November 24th and counting)
1978 – 265 Days (March 6th through November 27th)
1932 & 1941 – 263 Days (March 21st through December 10th)
Syracuse should easily be able to at least move into a tie for 2nd (274 days) because I do not expect 1” of snow or more through Thursday evening. There is the potential for some snow between Friday and Saturday. However, it is very questionable whether or not Syracuse will receive 1” of snow on either of those days. Our computer models remain at odds on whether or not enough cold air and moisture combine with other atmospheric systems to produce enough accumulating snow this weekend. If we do not receive a day with 1” of snow or more through Sunday November 29th, then 2009 would go into the record books with the longest stretch without receiving 1” of snow or more.
What is also interesting to note is what happened in each of the winters after the snowless streak occurred. Thanks to the National Weather Service and the Northeast Climate Center, I have obtained the subsequent seasonal snow totals of the years mentioned above:
Winter Of 1946-1947: 110.4”
Winter Of 1998-1999: 98.3”
Winter Of 1978-1979: 118.5”
Winter Of 1932-1933: 33.7”
Winter Of 1941-1942: 84.6”
Winter Of 2009-2010: To Be Determined
There is certainly a wide spread of snowfall in the seasons following this type of snowless streak. The winter of 1932-1933 was the second lowest snowfall for a season since 1902. There were two other winters with below normal snowfall and two other winters with seasonal snowfall closer to normal. It would make sense that we would not receive a subsequent season with above average snowfall since we are off to a slow start. However, the correlation to say that we will definitely have a below normal snowfall this coming season cannot be determined with confidence or statistical significance from this sample.
Stay tuned! We will keep you posted on these records and any further changes in our upcoming weather for the holiday weekend and for the winter season.
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