Watching lake effect snow, tough wind chills & nor’easter potential
SYRACUSE -- A quick burst of steady snow during Monday morning’s commute reminded us that, yes, it is the last week of December. The rest of this week will keep us on our toes in the weather center as many weather systems will cause fast hour to hour changes locally. In fact, we will already see quick changes through the afternoon.
Steady snow has exited most of Central New York. However, lake effect snow should continue east of Lake Ontario where another 2 to 6” of snow is likely through 5:00 pm. In fact, a travel advisory has been issued for all of Lewis County. The county says that blowing snow and snow-covered roads lead to the advisory, and hazardous driving conditions may be present.
Elsewhere, flurries should give way to some developing sunshine. Other thin squalls may affect sections of the Finger Lakes from time to time. Anyway, this brief break will end quickly tonight as an arctic cold front causes our weather to downshift to bitter cold.
Monday night will feature more hour to hour weather worries. For the early evening, most of Central New York will be relatively quiet. Lake effect snow should continue east and northeast of Lake Ontario. A potent blast of polar air will push through the area around 8:00 pm through midnight. During this time period, some brief snow squalls are possible anywhere in the area with the cold front passing through. After that, winds increase to 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH from the northwest. This will usher in a surge of much colder temperatures and wind chills.
By Tuesday morning, the wind chill will be between 5 and 10° below zero for much of Central New York. Across the Adirondacks, the wind chill values may approach 25° below zero. In addition, those northwesterly winds should also produce a plume of lake effect snow east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Many areas will pick up a fresh 2 to 4” of snow tonight. However, 4 to 8” of snow or more are likely in persistent squalls especially east of Lake Ontario. We could even see amounts over 4” in central New York if squalls form fast enough in Syracuse overnight.
Tuesday will feature some tough outdoor weather conditions. Expect a northwesterly stiff wind to continue between 20 and 30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH. This will continue to import a Canadian chill and a spray of lake effect snow. Temperatures will struggle in the lower teens all day. Wind chills will be below zero in the morning and only near zero in the afternoon. This northwesterly wind should allow a spray of lake effect snow and flurries to continue. It appears that an additional 2-4” of snow should occur in a wide swath southeast of Lake Ontario. However, where intense squalls persist, up to 8” of additional snow cannot be ruled out. A combination of these stinging wind chills plus more lake effect snow across a good chunk of central New York should make for poor outdoor conditions throughout the day. Blowing and drifting snow will also be a factor throughout the day. Additional lake effect snow will be likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning before tapering off. Another 1-4” of snow will be likely southeast of Lake Ontario.
Most of Wednesday will feature a break in the action. However, new interesting weather will be developing as 2009 ends and 2010 begins. There are many question marks on how this could affect our weather.
New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day will be an interesting period for Central New York and the entire northeast for that matter. A weak weather system during the daylight hours of Thursday will consolidate and strengthen into an east coast storm system around New Jersey. This storm will then intensify and move only slowly northeast across Long Island and Cape Cod. There a lot of unknowns with this system. What we do know is that we are at risk for some storm snow New Year’s Eve night through New Year’s Day. How slow this storm moves will ultimately determine whether we see periods of light snow thereafter with imbedded lake effect snow squalls or additional storm snowfall. Stay tuned for updates through the week!
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