From OMC Financial Services:
Like many people, investors can be a superstitious crowd, too. However, here are two “stock market predictors” that require a closer look.**The January Barometer
>>The theory is that from February 1 until December 31, the stock market will be higher or lower based on its performance in January – in other words as January goes, so goes the year
>>Surprisingly, over the last 113 years this has been correct 72 times (64%)
>>“Not so fast” says Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest
>>If over the last 113 years you just guessed that the market would always be higher during the last 11 months you would have been right 73 times (65%)
>>He also notes that while the market is up by a greater percentage following up January’s vs. down January’s (72% vs. 49%), if you took your money out of the market after a down January and you were wrong you could be short-changing yourself by a significant amount – case in point: 2009
**The Super Bowl Indicator
>>There are some variations of this one but the basic premise is based on whether the team originally started in the NFL or the AFL – if the winning team started in NFL the market will be up for the year but if the winning team started in the AFL the market will be down for the year
>>Though the indicator has no basis in fact whatsoever it has been right 81% of the time in 43 years
>>Even more surprisingly, after each of the six Pittsburgh Steelers’ wins the market was up double-digits, including last year
>>Both teams in this year’s Super Bowl got their start in the NFL
