NEW YORK CITY -- As you may, or may not be aware, through my company Precision Weather Service, we forecast for the New York City Metropolitan Transit Authority, specifically the subway and rail system which runs through the five boroughs. Meteorologists Peter Hall, Mike Brookins and Matt Stevens also do some forecasting for my company as well as for our CNY Central television stations and this website.
As I am sure you are aware, the national news media, newspapers national and local and of course here on the internet, everyone is now on the Hurricane Earl bandwagon, and the more we hear about Earl, the crazier it will get in east coast cities this week. Our client, the NYC Metropolitan Transit Authority is already into “panic mode”, and as of this writing, Earl is still 1500 miles and three days away from even getting close to New York City.
The NYC MTA called us at noon on Tuesday and is doubling the amounts of updates they receive from us for the rest of this week. This means every two hours we’re updating their forecast with the latest (or even NO new information) on Hurricane Earl and how it might effect them. Having gone through this before with the NYC MTA on winter storms, you can bet that by Thursday we’ll be providing hourly updates along with conference calls.
At the outset, you would think “Geez… how come they are in panic mode already?
Well, there are several reasons, some are “real” reasons and others are “playing with the mind” reasons.
First, the “real” reasons and concerns.
Let’s say the worst case scenario happens and people must be sheltered or actually evacuated off parts of Long Island and near the ocean due to a storm surge and flooding from the rising tides and large waves. Or how about generalized flooding? Or how about widespread wind damage? Any of this would and could involve the transportation system. A direct hit or a strong hurricane close by could cause any of this to occur.
Second, if the above did occur and people had to be sheltered or moved, we are dealing with tens or even hundreds of thousands of people within this city of 10 million that would need help. Even a simple evacuation of coastal areas could grind the transportation system of the city to a stand still.
Third, there are hundreds of miles of subway system rails, tunnels and tracks running above and below ground, each has the potential for their own problems with wind and rain. As you may know, to enter most subways you walk down a flight or two of stairs. Heavy rains can easily cascade down the stairs and cause flooding.
Overhead rails and trains can be affected by strong winds. The MTA has a wind criteria of 35 mph. Any higher than this and the subways and trains can’t run.
Now, how about the “playing with your mind” reasons?
There is one big issue here, and it is called “media hype”. Even as of this writing, days in advance, Hurricane Earl is all over the news, leading the morning national news and talk shows. If you are in New York City like the MTA is, you can bet it is leading their news and all over the front pages of the newspapers. The more it is on TV, radio and in the newspaper, the hype increases.
Not to say some of the hype isn’t warranted, because we can’t totally downplay Earl, even days away, but we do have to try and keep emotions in check at this early stage.
This means each forecast must be carefully worded trying to anticipate how THEY will read it and react to it. Same with when we speak with them on a conference call. We must watch the wording we use, yet be absolutely sure they are properly briefed. And yes, often times they ask “what is the worst case scenario”, and we must tell them.
So, that’s a little insight as to why New York City is already in panic mode. Now, we keep checking computer models, update the NYC MTA and hope for the best knowing Mother Nature has the final call!
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