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Hurricane predictions looking right on
Posted: 09.11.2010 at 9:46 PM
Mike Brookins

Mike Brookins is a meteorologist for CNY Central.

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Graph of Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season from NOAA
Photo

  It’s been an active hurricane season with 9 named storms so far and we’re only half way through it. Climatologically the season has reached it’s peak on September 11th as you can see on the image to the right. Historically, half the storms have formed before this date and half have come after.  It’s not the mid way point of the season which runs from June 1st, through November 30th. That would be September 1st.

  It’s not uncommon to find a storm lurking in the waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean around this time of the year, and this year is no different. Tropical Storm Igor is currently over the Central Atlantic Ocean and moving westward. Igor is expected to become a major hurricane, the third of the season. At this point the storm doesn’t pose an immediate threat to any land.

  The 2010 Atlantic basin tropical season so far has spawned a total of 9 storms including Igor. 3 of those storms have gone on to become hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. To be a major hurricane the storm has to be at least a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Thus having maximum sustained winds over 110mph. Those two storms were Danielle and most recently Earl. In a typical year we would see 11 storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. So you can see that 2010 has brought an abundance of activity.

  Predictions made at the beginning of the year by some of the countries leading researchers from the University of Colorado are looking to be right on. Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach said 17 named storms would form this year. If we continue to see as much activity as the first half of the season, reaching this forecast will be a cinch.

  Here is a list of the names to be used for future tropical storms this year in the Atlantic from the National Hurricane Center: Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter.

  I personally had some friends of mine affected by the busy hurricane season. They were vacationing on the outer banks of North Carolina and had to be evacuated due to the near blow from Hurricane Earl. After spending a day inland, they were able to get back and finish out their week away from the hustle and bustle of regular life. Better safe than sorry was theme being discussed as Earl never made a huge impact on that area.

  Have you ever had to evacuate due to an impending tropical storm? Tell us your story with a comment below. We’d love to here it.

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