ALBANY -- Today's Siena poll shows Andrew Cuomo with a huge 30 point lead over Carl Paladino. But yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll shows the Democrat only leading the Buffalo Republican by a mere 6 points. Not only were both polls accurate, but they didn’t contradict each other. How is that possible?
Political polling is both art and science. Like art, it's value is in the eye of the beholder. And like in science, methodologies matter. Which is a fancy way of saying that Siena's poll pulled from a larger set of people, than Quinnipiac's. Siena polled registered voters, while Quinnipiac polled a subset of registered voters, those considered "likely" to vote. It's simply a matter of how large your universe is.
There are 11 million registered voters in the State. Only ½ of those who are registered are considered "likely" to vote. Typically, pollsters survey likely voters much closer to election day…
According to Michael Gormley, who has studied a lot of polls in his 30 years as a political reporter, while Quinnipiac's poll of likely voters is unusual this early in an election season, its results are not only accurate but informative
With a Marist college poll coming out on Friday, we want to leave you with two thoughts. The first is simply that a poll is a snapshot of what "was" at one particular moment. Second, Warren Buffett once said, "A public opinion poll is no substitute for thought". Meaning a poll is not critical analysis.
