Short answer: No. Long answer: Maybe.
I am surprised it took this long for one of these stories to appear on the internet. Is climate change responsible for Thursday’s deluge? Well, in this full web commentary here, the discussion has begun. Here are the facts regarding last week’s storm: Many east coast records were set. Syracuse saw the most rain it had every seen in one day in September since records were kept back in 1902. Between 3 to 7 inches of rain fell in central New York. Also, revisit these web stories here, here and here to see the damage caused in Cortland and Oswego counties. An impressive tropical plume of moisture in a north to south swath kept the tropical moisture pump going all the way up the east coast. Wilmington, North Carolina set more impressive weather records. New one-day, three-day, four-day, and five-day rainfall, and September records were established. What’s even more incredible is that prior to this rain event, Wilmington was on pace for an extremely dry September. So, to switch from one extreme to another is quite astonishing. The one-day total of 10.33 inches, recorded on September 27, was between a 50 and 100-year event, according to a statistical analysis by Climate Central senior research scientist Claudia Tebaldi. This means that, in any given year, there is between a one in 50 and one in 100 chance of experiencing such an event. However, Wilmington’s five-day rainfall total of 22.54 inches was rarer than a 100-year event, meaning that there is less than about a one in one hundred chance that such an event would occur each year.
Now to the discussion… There is little doubt that the climate has warmed during the past century. There has already been an increase in intense precipitation events, as well. The theory is that the warmer it gets, the more precipitation will occur. This is because warmer air can hold more water. Observational studies show long-term trends towards more extreme precipitation in many regions. In the continental US, for example, overall precipitation in many regions increased during the 20th century, solely as a result of increases in extreme precipitation events (i.e. there was no increase in mild or moderate precipitation events).
There is some controversy, however, regarding how to characterize the relationship between climate change and individual extreme weather events, such as this heavy rainfall event. This web story that I have included in my web story shows the debate well with Phil Duffy and James Hansen taking sides on the issue: Phil Duffy, Climate Central's chief scientist, put it this way: “Despite the robust relationship between climate change and extreme precipitation, it is not possible to definitively attribute this week's storm (or any single storm) to climate change. While climate change may increase the odds of extreme precipitation events, any specific event might have happened anyway (i.e. without climate change).” However, other researchers, such as James Hansen of NASA and Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, are a bit more bullish on the connection between climate change and certain types of extreme weather events. In an email report yesterday on recent global temperature trends, Hansen wrote:
“The standard scientist answer is "you cannot blame a specific weather/climate event on global warming." That answer, to the public, translates as "no". However, if the question were posed as "would these events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 [parts per million] ppm?", an appropriate answer in that case is "almost certainly not." That answer, to the public, translates as "yes", i.e., humans probably bear a responsibility for the extreme event.“
“In either case, the scientist usually goes on to say something about probabilities and how those are changing because of global warming. But the extended discussion, to much of the public, is chatter. The initial answer is all important. Although either answer can be defended as "correct", we suggest that leading with the standard caveat "you cannot blame…" is misleading and allows a misinterpretation about the danger of increasing extreme events.”
What is your viewpont? What are your feelings about global warming and climate change? Let us know by commenting on this web story at the bottom of this web page.
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