Anchorage, Alaska recorded their first measurable snowfall of the season on Tuesday, which was almost three weeks later than normal. So what you say? Well, believe it or not, that could give us some indication as to what this month and our winter in general might be like.
The most important word here is the word “could”. You know how I feel about long range weather predictions. I am not a big believer in them as much of the time they change. We have enough trouble with short range forecasting.
Anyway, back to Alaska, you are probably wondering, just how does Anchorage weather affect us in Central New York? Great question. Here’s how, without getting too technical….
The upper air patterns, jetstreams and dominant areas of high and low pressure are constantly taking up residence at different locations around the globe. From a meteorology standpoint, we typically find that when you have a dominant ridge of high pressure over Alaska, this often time triggers a trough of low pressure or storminess in the Plains and Rockies. Further east, given this pattern, we might “tend” to see a ridge of high pressure along the eastern seaboard and generally covering CNY.
Given the above pattern, all things being equal, this pattern would tend to mean less snow and even later snow for Alaska (as is apparently the case so far this season).
They had this “general” same pattern last winter and Anchorage totaled 74.6” of snow, just 4 inches above normal. We had 106.2” of snow in Syracuse.
OK. So again, all things being equal, IF this pattern were to generally maintain itself, the same “general” pattern as last winter, Anchorage and we here in CNY could potentially be headed for a winter somewhat like we had last year… which would technically be a little less snow than average, but still 100” for snow for Syracuse.
Oh, did I say “generally” and “tend to” and “if” often enough? Good!
Please keep those words in mind. We’ll be continuing to monitor Alaska weather closely anyway as we actually forecast for a radio station in Anchorage.
Otherwise, below is the official Special Weather Statement issued by the National Weather Service in Anchorage about their first measurable snowfall of the season.
SNOWFALL FOR YEARS WITH FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN NOV
------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR DATE OF FIRST SNOW SEASONAL SNOWFALL (IN)
------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 NOVEMBER 02 N/A
2009 NOVEMBER 08 74.6
2003 NOVEMBER 10 113.8
2002 NOVEMBER 13 36.8
1987 NOVEMBER 01 79.9
1986 NOVEMBER 09 38.7
1975 NOVEMBER 09 61.3
1957 NOVEMBER 08 30.4
1950 NOVEMBER 11 64.0
1944 NOVEMBER 11 57.9
1943 NOVEMBER 03 66.8
IN ADDITION TO SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW...ANCHORAGE HAS
ALSO SEEN A LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL THIS FALL. A TOTAL
OF 1.36 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN SINCE SEPTEMBER 1...
WHICH IS 3.60 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
