Tuesday, June 18, 2013

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The Capitol Report - “Senate Majority in Doubt”
Posted: 11.04.2010 at 10:41 AM
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ALBANY -- Buffalo-area State Senator Antoine Thompson is co-chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, a position that his opponent, Republican Mark Grisanti, claims would have made it impossible for him not to know about campaign contributions solicited from AEG, the company at the heart of the Aqueduct bid-rigging scandal.   Thompson denies the charges, but the taint from the Inspector General’s report which implicates many top Senate Democrats was enough to reverse the momentum in his race for re-election.  Pollsters have been surprised by several state senate races, including this one, that seem to be coming down the wire.

One of the biggest surprises of this election cycle was WHICH of the state senate races have come down the wire.  

In the weeks leading up to the election, pollsters like Siena’s Steve Greenberg looked at enrollment numbers to predict which candidates might be in trouble. 

Among those at the top of the list were two central New York Democrats:   David Valesky of the 49th  State Senate district in and around Syracuse who triumphed over his Republican opponent Andrew Russo.   And Darrel Aubertine of the 48th who wasn’t so lucky –  the Watertown Democrat came up a few thousand votes short in his battle with Republican Patricia Ritchie. 

The surprise among pollsters came with 3 seats still undecided by 2pm Wednesday:  Still too close to call?   The race between 13-term Democrat Suzi Oppenheimer and Republican Bob Cohen, in a Westchester district that usually swings Democrat.  The race between Democrat Craig Johnson and challenger Jack Martins for the 7th Senate District on the North Shore of Long Island which also has a democratic enrollment edge. And then there’s the race between Democrat Antoine Thompson and challenger Mark J. Grisanti.  Thompson represents Buffalo, Grand Island and Niagara Falls where again, there is a significant Democratic enrollment advantage.  All three races will likely go to a recount. 

The recount process could take weeks.  

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