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Here we are half way through the month, we just had 3 consecutive days with high temperatures in the 60°s and there has not been any measurable snow in Syracuse yet for the 2010-2011 winter season.  I thought that since today is the official midpoint of November, it would be a good idea to recap our month so far and take inventory on how fortunate we have been to not have to deal with snowy travelling conditions, yet for the majority of the viewing area.

How unusual is it to not have any measurable snow yet? Good question. On average, we receive 0.5” of snow every October. Hancock Airport only received a Trace of snow, which is defined as snow that fell by does not accumulate. Normally every November, there should be 10.7” of snow in Syracuse. We have a long way to get that much snow between now and November 30^th.   Still, it’s been a long time since Syracuse has seen any measurable snow, period. Hancock Airport has a streak of 260 consecutive days without snow and counting.  The latest Syracuse has ever gone in a season without recording 0.1” of snow was on December 11^th, 1998. That same year, another record was set. December 22^nd 1998 was the latest that Hancock Airport received 1” of snow. By the way, the winter of 1998-1999 had a total of 98.3” of snow which is obviously below normal. However, that total is still fairly impressive considering that the first 1” of snow occurred just before Christmas that year. Here is a look at the least snowiest November snowfalls and their subsequent season totals according to the National Weather Service in Binghamton:

The most interesting thing to notice above is that a slow start to a snowy season does not necessarily mean a quiet winter. Yes, 3 out of 5 winters had under 100” of snow, which is below normal. However, 2 of these winters had well above normal snowfalls, including the whopper from the winter of 2000-2001.  I went deeper into the statistics to also find other Octobers and Novembers that had less than 1” of snow and found these numbers.

Those numbers are a bit more empathic to argue for a below average snowfall if October and November remain relatively snow-free. Ah, but the question is will stay that way for the rest of the month. For the short term, there will be no snow through at least Thursday morning.  In fact, looking ahead to the next seven days, temperatures, on average will be above normal through Wednesday, near normal for Thursday through Sunday. There appears to be a small window of opportunity to receive 0.1” of snow or more. That chance is late Thursday night and Friday morning as cold north-northwesterly winds may create a spray of flurries or light snow showers. However, right now, the threat to actually get that accumulating snow is only 33%. After that this weekend’s chance for snow looks negligible. The next real threat for snow after that comes Tuesday night into Wednesday November 23^rd-24^th as colder temperatures and more aligned winds may allow for lake effect snow. The colder than normal temperature regime has a better than even chance to finish the month thereafter.  There is still plenty of November left for Syracuse to receive it’s first official measurable snowfall. Stay tuned.