SYRACUSE -- It was 37° before dawn Monday morning in Syracuse. That is the warmest temperature we will see this week.
By this afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the teens with wind chills in the single digits and approaching zero this evening. If that wasn’t enough, the plummeting temperatures and increasing winds will cause heavier lake effect snow to blossom across parts of our local area.
Before the lake effect snow really ripens tonight, the combination of falling temperatures and light snow this afternoon may cause some areas of black ice on untreated surfaces. Your driveway, sidewalks and area parking lots that get less treatment will be the most susceptible to icy conditions through this afternoon.
Strong winds have already created heavy lake effect snows south-southeast of Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, Lake Erie and Georgian Bay through this morning. As colder northwesterly winds funnel into our region this afternoon Lake Ontario will get into the mix and produce lake snows of its own. As always, lake effect snow intensities and positions are difficult to predict.
Here’s my best educated guess regarding snow locally: Winds will likely be 310-320 on the compass for tonight and Tuesday. That may not be much to you, unless you are a pilot. But, if you are tracking lake effect snow over multiple lakes, it means everything. That type of wind flow will likely create a slightly shorter fetch of moisture compared to what we had last week, at least initially. In addition, Georgian Bay’s moisture will likely not be incorporated into our Ontario bands until Tuesday night.
While there will still be plenty of ambient moisture around, I do not think the snows should be as prolific for Monday night and Tuesday. Having said that, there should still be enough snow on the ground to be an issue tonight and Tuesday.
Here are two snowfall graphics to keep in mind:
Tonight’s snowfall (5:00 p.m. Monday - 5:00 a.m. Tuesday)
Tuesday’s snowfall (5:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.)
These snowfall graphics represent my best forecast through sunset Tuesday. It appears that lake effect snow is likely southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday night. Georgian Bay appears to be more likely to add moisture into our local lake effect snows. This could mean even heavier accumulations during this period.
As always, stay tuned on-air and online to CNY Central for Interactive Doppler and and Triple Doppler radars as well as your updated forecasts and closings and delays.
More on this story from the Associated Press:
Blustery upstate New York was getting another round of lake-effect storms Monday, a week after some areas were buried under nearly 5 feet of snow.
This time, forecasters warned that strong winds would push "feels like" temperatures below zero and create blinding whiteouts for drivers. The National Weather Service issued a lake-effect snow warning for Syracuse and surrounding central New York communities, where a foot of snow was possible by Tuesday on top of the 58 inches that fell last week.
In another traditionally snowy part of the state, Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties in the southwest corner, 1 to 2 feet of Lake Erie-fed snow was possible by Tuesday night, forecasters said. The two counties regularly get 200 inches of snow each year.
The blowing snow was blamed for an accident involving two tractor-trailers and a pickup truck on Interstate 86 in North Harmony around noon Monday. Chautauqua County sheriffs officials say they collided as traffic slowed on the highway because of poor visibility. The pickup's driver was taken to the hospital with neck and shoulder pain.
Buffalo, which gets about 93 inches a year, was expected to pick up just an inch or two Monday. But forecasters said wind gusts of up to 35 mph could blow it around and make for tricky commuting while making the 15-degree air temperature feel well below zero.
With the official start of winter still a full week away, the cold was enough for Buffalo's City Mission to activate its "code blue" emergency plan for the homeless for the first time this season. The activation opens two warming shelters in the city, offering a place to sleep and a hot meal.
To the north and east of Buffalo, Lake Ontario was expected to feed drifting bands of snow across Niagara, Orleans and western Genesee counties, but only an inch or two was expected to accumulate.
This time of year is prime for lake-effect snows, which are caused when cold air rushes across warmer lake water. The result is bands of precipitation that can hover and bury one area of a town while missing another completely. The threat is diminished later in the season when ice forms on the lakes.
(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
