I think it's safe to say, based on the weather we had this past weekend and starting out this week, that we are transitioning into a late Fall/early Winter weather pattern. Over the past month, as Peter Hall mentioned in his web story Monday morning, October was, for the most part ordinary, only 1 degree warmer than normal and precipitation a little above normal.
But, what about November?
First, let's deal with what we are pretty sure of, and that means 100 year averages for Syracuse. From November 1st through 30th, the average daily high temperature will fall from 53 to 41 (cooling off 12 degrees). Over average nighttime low temperature falls from 36 to 27 (cooling 9 degrees).
Average snowfall for November is 10.7". Since snowfall is on all of our minds, here are the Top 5 Greatest Snowfalls for November and Least Snowfalls for November for Syracuse.
Month's Snowfall (Normal: 10.7"):
Greatest:
Rank | Value | Year |
1 | 34.2 | 1995 |
2 | 25.9 | 1996 |
3 | 25.9 | 1976 |
4 | 24.4 | 1944 |
5 | 22.1 | 1958 |
Least:
Rank | Value | Year |
1 | 0.0 | 1998 |
2 | 0.0 | 1966 |
3 | 0.1 | 2006 |
4 | 0.2 | 1988 |
So, by checking the above number, we can go from zero snow (which happened in two Novembers out of 100…which is unusual), to 34+"…which is also unusual
Looking at the latest upper air patterns, jet stream winds, cold air masses across Canada and so forth, (at least right now), I believe the pattern will be changeable/
What I mean by this is a pattern much like last week. We have a few days of milder than normal weather followed by colder than normal weather. Periods of storminess and yes, some snow or snow and rain mixed followed by quiet and generally dry stretches.
What does this mean by months end? My best educated guess would be we average close to, (within a degree or two) of normal temperature, warmer or colder. For snowfall, again (just a guess), I'll say below around or below the normal 10.7".
Bottom line though is…Nobody can say for sure, and I will repeat, I am not a believer in long range weather predictions, and all it takes is one storm sometime this month or one cold outbreak lasting several days to throw any of these "educated guesses" off.
Stay tuned…
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