American military forces have now led four days of airstrikes on Libyan leader Moammar Qaddaffi's command and control. President Obama has promised that American forces will turn over control over the No Fly Zone in a matter of days and not any longer. This use of force to stop Qaddaffi from killing his own people should not have been a surprise. One month ago I wrote about the likelihood that American forces were already involved and air strikes would likely be used by the United States.
February 24th Matt's Memo:
Gas prices were already going up. This week they’ve shot even higher. Unrest and violence at the hands of Libyan leader Moammar Qadaffi has introduced volatility into the global crude oil market. What country is the biggest user of oil? The United States. Recent history has shown that a threat on the global oil supply is a direct threat on the American economy. It raises the question how far will the Obama Administration be willing to go to settle the situation.
The president said he is leaving all options open with regard to Libya. The United Nations Security Council is taking a similar stance prior to its Friday meeting to discuss Qadaffi. It is not too soon to envision American military forces being involved in either quelling the unrest or unseating the leader.
A No-Fly zone over Libya is the strongest option on the table publicly. That would likely be monitored by an international force, but led by American forces. It would be naïve for us to think there aren’t already United States assets in place somewhere in Libya operating under the radar gathering intelligence and creating options for maneuvers. They are always there days, weeks or months before any operation is announced.
Certainly the effort will be made to avoid conflict or a show of force. However, Qadaffi himself has said he does not plan to leave. His people don’t seem to want him there. He’s disrupting global commerce. He has a history of terrorism including his connection to the bombing of Pan Am 103. And then there’s the oil.
Not only the oil pumped from Libya which represents 2% of the world production, but also the forward looking fear that other oil producing countries could have similar uprisings.
The pace of global change in the last month has been remarkable, Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Libya. Who would have predicted those would be the countries grabbing headlines in early 2011.
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Tell me how long do you think U.S. forces will be engaged in the skies over Libya? It's unlikely the time will be measured in days even if the president succeeds in turning over the formal leadership of Allied forces to NATO.
