Everybody has questions about the proposed Big 10 expansion but the answers are hard to come by. Here's what we know, what we don't and what could still factor in.
1. Everything is probably hinging on Notre Dame. Notre Dame makes sense from a football standpoint, a geographical standpoint, a TV standpoint and a money standpoint. Notre Dame would likely make more money from the Big 10 than they would from an independent deal with NBC or another network and the Fighting Irish have been pursued by the Big 10 for years.
But.....
Rational decisions and logical thought process do not apply to Notre Dame. The university (and their very generous donor base) love their independent status and may be willing to hold on to it even if it means losing out on a better long term opportunity.
If Notre Dame agrees to join the Big 10 I think it's possible that the expansion stops with the Irish.
2. If Nebraska or Texas wants in, there is good reason to believe they are a sure thing. Both are football powerhouses and have a huge following. Nebraska doesn't bring a massive TV market with them but they're a perfect fit in too many ways.
3. I don't see both Syracuse and Rutgers going to the Big 10. There's a case to be made for either school (I'm leaning towards SU but I'm biased) and the Big 10 only needs one school to try and get the Big 10 Network on New York area cable systems. Make no mistake - households that would potentially subscribe to the Big 10 Network is one of the key talking points.
4. The Big East has a very slim chance of surviving as a major football conference. If Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers and UConn don't go to the Big 10, ACC or SEC expansion could swallow them (or other Big East schools) up. If the Big 10 leaves the Big East alone (unlikely) and the ACC doesn't expand (consider me skeptical) maybe Big East football survives. Don't hold your breath.
5. If SU joins the Big 10, it might not work out smoothly. Conference expansion and movement is almost always about two things. Football and money that comes from football. That said, there's good reason to wonder if college football will continue to be a cash cow. Think about it. College football teams play thirteen times a year. College Basketball teams play up to thirty times a year. NCAA Basketball may be the under appreciated middle child of college sports right now (at least from a money perspective) but let's see how those numbers break down in fifteen or twenty years.
