I’d like to make one thing very clear. It’s completely ridiculous to be doing a bubble watch or even making any sort of March Madness predictions in January. Here’s why –
- We’ve barely scratched the surface of the conference schedule.
- RPI is almost meaningless due to scheduling disparities between schools
- Some very good teams are still coming together and some bad teams haven’t collapsed yet.
All that said, I couldn’t resist making some very, very early postseason predictions. Only read on if you’re an insane college basketball fan and/ or obsessed with the Big East.
If the tournament started today, here’s how I see the Big East faring.
In the Tournament -
Syracuse (16-0 RPI 4) #1 seed if the tournament started today.
Pittsburgh (15-1 RPI 9) Could someone explain to me why efficient and effective Pitt teams fall off a cliff when the NCAA tournament starts?
Villanova (14-1 RPI 16) Arguably the second best team in the Big East. Mediocre strength of schedule means they need more road wins in conference.
Connecticut (12-2 RPI 8) I have nothing to say about UConn except they look decent right now but Jim Calhoun should pray every night that Kemba Walker doesn't get hurt.
Notre Dame (14-3 RPI 12) Notre Dame could be an elite team or a very good bubble team. I’m leaning towards the first one right now.
West Virginia (10-4 RPI 14) I'm not a true believer in this West Virginia team...yet. Wins against Vanderbilt, Cleveland State and Georgetown are nice but WV has also lost a few games you would expect an elite team to win.
St. Johns (10-4 RPI 11) Losses to St. Bonaventure and Fordham could haunt this team on selection Sunday.
Cincinnati (15-1 RPI 59) Shaky RPI but Cincy would easily be in if the tournament started today.
Looking Very Good -
Louisville (13-2 RPI 41) Louisville’s mediocre strength of schedule and RPI could be a problem later in the season.
Bubble Leaning In -
Georgetown (12-4 RPI 3) The Hoyas are looking downright shaky. They’ve lost three out of their last four and their #1 strength of schedule isn’t really that brutal when you look at it. It’s basically a bunch of neutral site games against semi-decent opponents from so-so conferences. It's crazy to think that a team with a top five RPI could be on the bubble but that's how I see it.
Marquette (12 -5 RPI 65) Marquette’s awful strength of schedule will come back to haunt them in March. The Golden Eagles are hot right now but will need to pick up some resume building wins.
Wrong Side of the Bubble -
Providence (11-6 RPI 94) Another year, another mediocre season and soft schedule for the Friars. Need some Big East wins or they will fall off the map.
Rutgers (10-5 RPI 110) Doubtful that Rutgers can get on the right side of the bubble, especially considering how many Big East teams are in contention. Rutgers should feel good about being above .500.
Not Happening
South Florida
Need a Miracle
Seton Hall
Questions? Comments? Information? adunbar@cnycentral.com
