Just like we saw in the Summer of 2010, the conference expansion rumor mill is churning again, only this time the rumors are turning into reality.
We've already seen that with Texas A&M.
It started with rumors saying the team was unhappy with the Longhorn Network from their rival Texas, and how A&M would be looking to leave the Big XII.
It resulted in a letter last week where Texas A&M announced its intent to withdraw from the Big XII and look elsewhere. Now the rumors include Oklahoma (and in turn, Oklahoma State) potentially looking at the Pac-12.
You may be asking yourself why this matters to us here in Upstate New York?
This report gives you a lot of reasons why it does. It's not just about the moves Big XII schools may or may not make, but the dominoes that would fall in the wake of those potential moves.
I feel like SU is committed to the Big East. One can look to a new TV contract up next year and potential exciting opportunities with other networks. Keep in mind the Big East backed out of talks with ESPN in reworking its deal after seeing huge deals other conferences were signing.
Then you consider the impending/likely folding of the Big XII. It was widely reported in the conference bonanza of 2010 thatwhich Missouri, Kansas State, and Kansas were in talks to join the Big East, "a soft landing" as tweeted by Pete Thamel of the New York Times. If the Big XII doomsday scenario were to come to fruition, and the Big East invites those schools, that could give you a 12/20 fball and hoops model split into divisions like such: (This is purely my speculation, and not even close to reality at this point)
Big East Football (West):
Missouri
Kansas
K-State
Louisville
TCU
Cincinnati
Big East Football (East, for lack of a better term)
Syracuse
UConn
Rutgers
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
South Florida
For Hoops, you take those divisions but then add:
West:
Notre Dame
DePaul
Marquette
East:
Providence
St. John's
Georgetown
Villanova
Seton Hall
If football futher expands, of course assuming the impending Big 12 death...Baylor could be added to the West (another Texas school and traveling partner for TCU won't hurt...Waco's Nielson TV market isn't THAT big...slightly smaller than Syracuse...but it's Texas) a school like Central Florida and it's Orlando market could be appealing to the Big East.
That's my gut feeling as to what happens..again pure speculation.
There's also the possibility that Texas (again) gets cold feet.
That brings us back to just one domino (Texas A+M) and just one move left to make. IMHO SEC's #1 pick for team 14 would be Virginia Tech. If that happens, then you have to look at an ACC expansion scenario, which I truly believe SU would be choice #1. Especially when you think that it was included in the ACC's 2003 expansion before Virginia politics cost the Orange a bid, for better or worse is in the eye of the beholder. Remember the ACC may also be proactive to entice any potential targets of other schools to stay, or to bulk up in the potential arms race of super conferences that we may very well see.
After the Virginia Tech option for the SEC, it's anybody's guess as to who they would invite to be team #14. I seem to think West Virginia would be a high caliber candidate. For sake of argument, if West Virginia is plucked, and the Big XII is in tact, you have to assume ACC and Big 10 and all other BCS conferences are content and not poaching Big East teams, it could be a stop gap add of UCF for the Big Eastwho I think is the strongest overall mid-major profile left out there...not counting Boise, BYU etc who would be a HUGE stretch for BE.
All in all it's a dizzying scenario, and everyone has a take or an opinion on what may or may not happen. So I took the ideas above over to the rabid Orange fans of the Syracusefan.com football forum to get their thoughts. Here's a few excerpts from some of the users' opinions:
"If the two moves above (A&M to SEC, and 4 schools to the Pac 10) occur, the Big 12 is done. There are five schools left (Kansas, KSU, Missouri, ISU, Baylor). The next move to actually occur may be for the BE to invite Kansas, KSU (Kansas State) and Missouri. They may even accept. Great. The BE (Big East) is at 12 football schools, thinking they can do some type of east west thing and live happy ever after. The only problem, any school (one of those three or the “original 9” would jump in a second to the Big 10, ACC so SEC. So these moves really don’t matter.
Similarly, the ACC could be “proactive” and get to 16, but it is all for nothing if one of the 16 later jumps.
So if there are only two deciders (Big 10 and SEC), what do they do? Note in no way do I think they are working together, or in conjunction, they are just the only two that can truly be proactive."
That was from "JerryCuse". He has a lot more to say, I just couldn't fit it here, so if you want to read it click the link to the forum!
A user named OrangePhan added "As far as 12 &20, (12 football, 20 basketball teams in the Big East) I can very much live with adding KU, KSU and Mizz. Baylor and ISU are a stretch and improbable unless we boot DePaul and one other. I like 'Orangemen's' 4 division config on another thread for BB: East: SU, UConn, GT, SJ, Prov; Mid-Atl: Nova, Pitt, WV, Rut, SH; Mid-West: ND, Marq, DeP, Cinci, L'ville; West: KU, KSU, Mizz, TCU, USF. Leave it there, but chances are, it will all change as the dominos fall."
One thing is certain, nobody, outside of a few conference commissioners and college presidents know for sure, but it seems now more than ever conference expansion armageddon is in the near future.
What're your thoughts? Leave a comment below!
