For much of the past two months, we've had a pretty tough weather pattern in Syracuse and central New York. By the end of the December, we had already accumulated well over half our normal amount of snow for the entire winter! In January, we added another 45+ inches pushing our season total up to over 123", which is now beyond our average snowfall for an entire winter. (The Syracuse average is 121 inches). And guess what. Check the calendar, we're just starting February, so we're not done yet.
But wait. This just in! Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog did NOT see his shadow Tuesday morning, which, according to folklore, means spring is right around the corner. Well, to that I say "hog wash", or more appropriately "groundhog wash"! From a more scientific standpoint, I am analyzing our medium and long range computer models and at this point, I just don't see an early spring. There is still plenty of cold, arctic air across Canada along with an upper level pressure and wind pattern that favor storms continuing to form in the deep south and head north up the Appalachians (or off the coast) and land somewhere into the northeast. One of these storms looks to take shape and head north this weekend giving CNY some snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday Night.
If that's not enough, computer models are also showing yet another storm taking shape in the Deep South early next week, intensifying and tracking up the eastern seaboard next Tuesday and Wednesday. Details on how much snow we could potentially see from both of these systems are sketchy right now as it is just too early.
So why has it been literally one storm after another for the past month or more? Because of the upper level weather pattern, the jet stream and pressure patterns. For most of the past two months, we've had a trough of low pressure nearly stationary along the east coast, the jet stream diving down into the Deep South and upper level winds and energy coming up the coast. This type of pattern favors storms and disturbances gathering strength and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic and heading up into the northeast. At least through the middle of this month, another two weeks, I see no major change in this pattern.
Patterns like this are tough to break down, but eventually the pattern does change and conditions begin reversing themselves. WHEN will this happen is the million dollar question. I wouldn't be surprised though if we start seeing a change in the current stormy pattern in another 3-6 weeks. At the outer end, that puts us into the middle of March. I say this NOT because I can see this change already taking place, because I can't. Instead, I make this statement simply based on experience. Fact is, the weather "usually" averages itself out over a period of time, that means the pattern changes. Over all my years in this business, I have found that these major pattern shifts usually take place after 2 to 5 months. From what I see and expect now, I think 2 months and maybe even 3 months is too soon, so we're looking more towards 4 months or more, from when this pattern first began. This would put us into sometime in March or even April.
IF, and this is a big IF...but if this does happen and we start warming up to above normal temperatures in March or April, could we technically call this an "early spring"? That's up for debate. I would still say however that Punxsutawney Phil was wrong. My personal opinion is an early spring had better be before March or April, but that's only me. What do you think?
In the meantime, our CNYcentral weather team will keep monitoring and tracking these storms. And I suppose there is always the "chance" that Phil is right!
Maybe there is a prolonged warm up right around the corner. Only time will tell.
