SYRACUSE -- It's official. El Nino, the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off the coast of Central America and the tropical Pacific Ocean, is back!

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued their press release Thursday morning alerting everyone. I have posted the official press release below for your reading pleasure.

Of course, as is always the case, when we hear of El Nino returning, we ask “So what does that mean for us?”  Excellent question… 

Scientists who study El Nino (and La Nina… colder than normal Pacific waters), tell us that “generally, a strong El Nino means winters are warmer than normal across the Midwest, the northeast and Canada”.   I am no El Nino expert by any means as I deal much more in day-to-day type forecasting, but a cursory check of records for Syracuse shows this has indeed been the case in the past. However, some El Nino years show little effect and there are even a few El Nino event years that we recorded above normal snowfall. Swell!  My cursory look would seem to indicate that roughly 60% of the El Nino years have milder winters in Central New York with less snow. Matter of fact, one of our least snowy winters ever was the winter of 1982/83 with just 66 inches falling, which happened to be a strong El Nino year.

My feeling (again, not being an El Nino expert) is that the northeastern United States is rather far north to make a solid statement on what El Nino may or may not mean for us up here I believe El Nino generally effects the southern United States and central American much more than Central New York. Much also depends on the strength of the event. It seems a minor or moderate El Nino event could little effect up here, but a very strong El Nino (like winter 82-83), now that has a better chance for effecting us.

By the way, research also says that El Nino weakens the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic We’ll see what happens.

Now, the official press release…

El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

El Niño’s impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niño’s have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean.  These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.

In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.

El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns.  

NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.

On the Web:

Forecast: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

NOAA’s El Niño site: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov